Space Warfare

Space exploration could play a role in shaping the future of warfare, though its implications are complex and multifaceted. The United States Space Force (USSF) is the space service branch of the United States Armed Forces. It was established on December 20, 2019, becoming the sixth branch of the U.S. armed forces. The USSF is responsible for organising, training, and equipping space forces and performing missions in, from, and to space. It aims to protect U.S. interests in space and ensure the safety of U.S. assets in orbit.

The USSF is headquartered at the Pentagon in Arlington County, Virginia, and has approximately 16,000 personnel. It operates a variety of space systems, including satellites for communication, navigation, weather forecasting, and intelligence gathering.

The USSF is a relatively new branch of the military, but it has already made significant contributions to U.S. national security. It is playing an increasingly important role in the defence of the United States and its allies.

The USSF directly references the term “Great Power Competition” (GPC) in its official documents and statements. This term is used to describe the strategic rivalry between major powers, particularly the United States and China, in various domains, including space.

The USSF recognises the importance of space in this competition and is actively working to ensure U.S. dominance in this domain.

See https://www.spaceforce.mil/

Great Power Competition

it’s highly likely that nations like Russia and China will continue to develop their space programs for military purposes. China has been actively expanding its military presence in space through various initiatives.

Strategic Importance: Space has become a critical domain for military operations. Satellites provide communication, navigation, intelligence, and early warning capabilities. Disrupting an adversary’s space assets could significantly impact their military capabilities. China has significantly increased its number of military satellites, including those for communications, intelligence gathering, missile warning, and navigation. This network enhances its military capabilities and enables space-based surveillance.

See China’s new satellites extend its military reach, US says

Existing Programs: Both Russia and China already have well-established space programs with military applications. They possess anti-satellite weapons, space-based surveillance systems, and are developing advanced technologies like hypersonic missiles that could be launched from space. China has developed and tested anti-satellite weapons, including missiles capable of destroying satellites in orbit. This poses a threat to other countries’ space assets and could disrupt critical space-based infrastructure. China is researching and developing space-based lasers, which could potentially be used to blind or damage satellites and other space assets. This technology would give China a significant advantage in space warfare.

Great Power Competition: The ongoing strategic competition between major powers, including the US, Russia, and China, is driving the militarisation of space. Each nation seeks to maintain or gain a military advantage in this domain.

Counterspace Capabilities: Russia and China are investing heavily in developing counterspace capabilities, such as jamming, hacking, and kinetic weapons, to neutralise or degrade an adversary’s space assets. China has also invested heavily in cyber warfare capabilities, which could be used to target and disrupt satellite communications and control systems. This adds another dimension to China’s space warfare strategy.

While international treaties like the Outer Space Treaty aim to prevent the weaponisation of space, the reality is that space is becoming increasingly militarised. This trend is likely to continue as nations compete for dominance in this vital domain. The militarisation of space will trigger an arms race.

Here's how space might influence war

1. Strategic Advantage and Surveillance

Space exploration has already led to the development of satellites for communication, navigation, and surveillance. In a conflict, the ability to monitor enemy movements, guide missiles, and maintain secure communication networks from space can provide a decisive advantage. For example:
GPS and satellite-based targeting systems are critical for modern military operations.
Spy satellites can detect troop movements or missile launches.
In the future space-based surveillance for military advantage is likely to involve a combination of technological advancements and strategic innovations. Some potential developments include:

Hyperspectral Imaging: This technology captures images across multiple parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, enabling detailed analysis of objects and environments. It could be used to identify camouflaged targets, detect chemical or biological agents, and monitor environmental changes.
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR): SAR systems can penetrate clouds and darkness, providing high-resolution images regardless of weather conditions. Advanced SAR systems could be used to track moving targets, map terrain, and monitor infrastructure.

Quantum Sensors: Quantum technologies offer the potential for highly sensitive sensors capable of detecting extremely faint signals. These sensors could be used for early warning systems, communications interception, and navigation.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: AI and ML algorithms can analyse vast amounts of data from space-based sensors, identifying patterns and anomalies that may be of military significance. This could enable faster and more accurate decision-making.

Constellation Networks: Networks of small, low-cost satellites could provide persistent surveillance coverage over specific regions or global areas. This could be particularly useful for monitoring remote or contested areas.

Space-Based Lasers: While still in the early stages of development, space-based lasers could be used for a variety of military applications, including communication, targeting, and potentially even weapons. Space-based lasers have not been used in combat. While there have been research and development efforts, such as the Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) in the 1980s, the technology is still not mature enough for deployment in space. However, there have been advancements in laser technology, with ground-based laser weapons being tested and deployed in some cases. These systems are designed to intercept and destroy incoming missiles and drones.

See First trial on British Army vehicle for high-powered laser weapon

2. Space as a Battleground

The concept of “space warfare” isn’t purely theoretical anymore. Countries are developing anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) and systems to disable or destroy enemy satellites. Controlling space assets could become as crucial as controlling air, land, or sea in future wars.
Several countries have developed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, including the United States, Russia, China, and India. These weapons are designed to target and destroy satellites in orbit.

See Russia’s Alleged Nuclear Anti-Satellite Weapon: International Law and Political Rhetoric
See Anti-Satellite Weapons and the Emerging Space Arms Race

Furthermore weapons in space can also be used to destroy ballistic missiles

This concept is the basis for anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems, which are designed to intercept and destroy incoming missiles before they can reach their targets. Some ballistic missiles do reach space before re-entering the atmosphere to strike their targets. This is a characteristic of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), which are designed to travel long distances.

ICBMs follow a trajectory that takes them high into the atmosphere, where they can travel vast distances. This trajectory is necessary to reach targets thousands of miles away. Russia’s new Oreshnik missile was recently used in Ukraine. The Oreshnik missile travels in a ballistic trajectory. This means it is launched upwards into space and then falls back to Earth under the influence of gravity. It can reach speeds exceeding Mach 10, making it highly manoeuvrable and difficult to intercept. According to Putin the missile is impossible to intercept using current air defence systems.

The development of space-based weapons to intercept ballistic missiles is a possibility that has been explored by many countries, including the West.
Here are some methods that could be used:

Kinetic Bombardment: Launching a high-speed projectile to collide with and destroy the missile. This is a relatively simple and effective method, but requires precise targeting and timing.

Laser Weapons: Using high-powered lasers to burn through the missile’s structure or warhead. This technology is still in development, but has the potential to be very effective.

Directed Energy Weapons: Similar to laser weapons, but using other forms of energy, such as microwaves or particle beams.

Satellite-Based Interceptors: Deploying interceptor missiles from satellites in orbit. This would allow for faster reaction times and a wider coverage area.

While these technologies are feasible, there are significant challenges to overcome, including:

Detection and Tracking: Identifying and tracking incoming missiles in space is a complex task, especially for hypersonic missiles that can manoeuvre unpredictably.

Reaction Time: Interceptors must be launched and guided to their targets within a very short timeframe.

Technological Complexity: Developing and deploying these systems requires significant technological advancements and investment.

International Treaties: The use of space-based weapons is highly regulated by international treaties, which could limit the development and deployment of ABM systems.

Despite these challenges, research and development in this area continue, and it’s possible that effective space-based missile defence systems could be developed in the future. However, it’s important to note that no system is perfect, and there’s always the possibility of a missile slipping through defences.

3. Resource Wars in Space

If humans establish mining operations on the Moon, Mars, or asteroids, conflicts over extraterrestrial resources could arise. Just as Earth has seen wars over oil and minerals, space could see similar disputes over rare metals or water sources.
Humans are considering mining the Moon for several reasons:
The Moon contains resources that are rare or difficult to obtain on Earth, such as Helium-3, which could be used as a clean energy source, and rare Earth elements essential for modern technology. Some asteroids are rich in metals like nickel and iron and other resources that could be valuable for future space exploration and industry.

Risks of Space Militarisation

The potential for space to become a new theatre of war raises ethical and practical concerns. For example:

Collateral damage in space (e.g., debris from destroyed satellites) could disrupt civilian infrastructure.
Weaponizing space might destabilize global relations, similar to nuclear proliferation.

Conclusion
While space exploration could provide key tools for winning wars, its broader value lies in promoting innovation, collaboration, and solutions to shared challenges. The hope is that humanity uses space as a unifying frontier rather than a new battlefield.

Scroll to Top