Yesterday’s delayed January Nonfarm Payrolls report came in much stronger than expected (130k jobs added vs. 70k forecast). While this shows a resilient economy, it has effectively “wrong-footed” the market by pushing interest rate cut expectations back to July. Treasury yields have ticked up in response to the jobs data, putting pressure on high-growth software […]
Strong jobs report pushes Treasury yields higher Read More »
FTSE 100, S&P 500The recent momentum stems from a tech rebound easing concerns over AI-related spending and disruptions, alongside broader market rotation (e.g., strength in areas like energy, small caps, and some defensives). Markets have shown choppiness in early 2026, with volatility potentially tied to jobs data, inflation reports (like CPI), and Fed interest rate expectations—key releases are
Expanding triangle forming on the S&P 500 Read More »
FTSE 100, S&P 500The Dow Jones rallied to new all-time highs, the S&P 500 could follow as the rally in tech stocks resumes. In this case the FTSE 100 could rally back to the top. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time ever, setting a high bar for today’s session. There
New High in the Dow Jones Read More »
FTSE 100, S&P 500The rotation I talked about yesterday continues, the S&P 500 closed down pressured by tech weakness and concerns over AI disrupting traditional software models. Microsoft is down 26% from its high, Nvidia is down 15%, Tesla is down 16%, Meta is down 14%, Oracle is down 55%, Amazon is down 8%, Apple is down 7%.
Bearish divergence between big tech and S&P 500 Read More »
S&P 500Overall, the tone is bullish for today, with stocks positioned for gains amid earnings focus and rotational strength. There is a noticeable move out of the tech sector, something we would expect as the S&P is near the top. First the decline in crypto and in particular Bitcoin was a warning to the stock market.
Overbought stock markets, limited upside Read More »
FTSE 100, S&P 500The US stock market shows a negative tone in premarket trading, influenced by mixed Big Tech earnings reactions, speculation around President Trump’s upcoming announcement of a new Federal Reserve Chair nominee (potentially Kevin Warsh, seen as more hawkish), and broader concerns over tech sector momentum after reports like Microsoft’s. Microsoft was down 10% due to
Microsoft 10% decline sends a warning Read More »
FTSE 100, S&P 500Stock markets are rallying following a mixed bag of earnings from tech giants. Both Meta and Tesla saw gains in after-hours trading after topping expectations. Microsoft shares are under pressure (down approx. 7% in pre-market) despite a double-beat, as investors worry about slowing cloud growth. All eyes are on Apple, as they are scheduled to
Fed leaves interest rates unchanged Read More »
FTSE 100, S&P 500Stock markets continue to rally, the dollar is breaking down and US bond yields are firm. The 34-day BTI is overbought , the Top 20 Differential is overbought, this suggests stock markets are near the top. The defining event for today is the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision of 2026, which will be announced at
US Dollar sell off accelerates Read More »
Dollar, FTSE 100, S&P 500Stock markets have shown resilience early in 2026, building on strong gains from prior years, sentiment is positive but it is being tested by renewed tariff threats from President Trump (specifically targeting Canada and South Korea) and a looming January 30 U.S. funding deadline, which is keeping volatility elevated. The US dollar is testing a
US Dollar decline could hit stocks Read More »
Dollar, FTSE 100, S&P 500The stock market outlook for today points to a modest rebound attempt in pre-market trading following a sharp sell-off yesterday, driven primarily by renewed geopolitical tensions and tariff threats from President Trump regarding Greenland. This has spilled over into broader risk aversion, including a weaker dollar, higher Treasury yields (10-year around 4.29%), and pressure on
US EU tensions hit markets Read More »
FTSE 100, S&P 500