Stock markets continue to rally, the dollar is breaking down and US bond yields are firm. The 34-day BTI is overbought , the Top 20 Differential is overbought, this suggests stock markets are near the top. The defining event for today is the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision of 2026, which will be announced at 7pm. The Fed concludes its two-day meeting today. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%. The focus will be on Chair Powell’s press conference for hints on whether the next cut is coming in March.
The other big news today is earnings from the big tech. Investors are repositioning ahead of massive earnings reports. Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla report today after the close. Tech optimism is high, especially following Nvidia and CoreWeave’s recent partnership news. If earnings disappoint the S&P 500 will decline. Despite the overbought condition the FTSE 100 can rally further, the actual top occurs when the 34-day BTI is overbought and the final move up is in five waves.