Stocks are likely to open flat or slightly higher, with reduced volatility as investors assess the government shutdown’s impact and await clarity on economic data. Technology and AI stocks may continue to lead, but energy stocks could face headwinds. Investors are advised to remain diversified and cautious, as October’s historical volatility and upcoming earnings season could trigger pullbacks. Earnings season for Q3 2025 starts in the second full week of October, with major US banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report first.
There will be no jobs report today due to the government shutdown. The focus must be on the rising price of metals like copper, gold and silver. Their price surges often precede or coincide with inflationary periods. Copper, as an industrial metal, signals economic growth and commodity cost pressures that could feed into inflation. The precious metals like gold and silver are classic “safe havens” during currency devaluation (US dollar) or rising prices.
With regard to copper, rising prices reflect booming demand from EVs, renewables, AI data centres, and construction—projected to grow copper use at a 10.7% CAGR through 2034. This industrial pull can signal overheating economies where commodity costs push up manufacturing prices, contributing to inflation. In short the rise in metal prices signal rising inflation and rising interest rates. I think investors will be disappointed in the fourth quarter when the data become more hawkish.
Stock markets will decline when it becomes clear that rates are not going down.