US futures are edging slightly lower this morning, reversing some of Friday’s late-session gains. The primary driver is a weekend announcement from President Trump to raise blanket global tariffs to 15% (up from 10%) after the US Supreme Court blocked his previous “reciprocal” tariff framework on Friday. The Supreme Court ruling provided short-term relief on Friday, but subsequent policy statements have created volatility.
The threat of war in the Middle East is still present, this continues to support oil prices. In other news the US PCE price index came in hotter than expected but markets rallied as investors focussed on the Supreme court ruling. This marked the sharpest monthly increase since February 2025 and signalled a stall or reversal in the disinflation trend, with core services remaining sticky.
Inflation remains elevated, the trade war is on, war is the Middle East is looming, AI is starting to disrupt businesses. All of this is negative for the stock market, the question is, do we get a final move up or not before the stock market turns down?