The US stock market is poised for a cautiously negative open today, driven primarily by the onset of a partial government shutdown at midnight ET, which is set to disrupt key economic data releases and heighten uncertainty. The failure of a stopgap funding bill has triggered the first shutdown in seven years, affecting 750,000 federal employees and delaying critical reports like September’s nonfarm payrolls (originally due Friday). Analysts at Bank of America estimate a 0.1% GDP drag per week of closure, with minimal direct market impact historically but potential for elevated volatility as the Fed’s October 29 meeting approaches without fresh data. Markets have shrugged off similar events before, but prolonged closure could erode consumer confidence and pressure cyclicals. Sentiment has turned bullish at a time when markets are in their final moves up. This means markets will once again shrug off the government shutdown but as noted above, the longer the situation remains the more bearish it will become for the markets.