U.S. inflation and employment market signals suggest the Fed is very likely to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August came in at 2.9% year-over-year, with core inflation (excluding volatile food & energy) steady at 3.1% y/y. These readings are higher than the Fed’s 2% […]
U.S. CPI as expected Read More »
InflationYesterday, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) came in lower than expected, easing fears of runaway inflation and bolstering expectations that the Fed could begin cutting interest rates. The market now anticipates possibly multiple cuts before year-end. The market is now awaiting August Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release at 1.30pm today; these figures may
S&P 500 at record highs, CPI is next Read More »
FTSE 100, S&P 500Investor sentiment is bearish overall, with caution stemming from deteriorating labour market conditions, volatility in bond yields, and fiscal uncertainties. Weak U.S. employment data has bolstered bets for a Fed rate cut. The nonfarm payrolls report showed only 22,000 jobs added in August and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. Bond yields declined which is
As yields pull back, gold surges to new highs Read More »
Bonds, GoldThe weak job report from yesterday, which showed only 22,000 jobs added in August and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, has pushed consensus among analysts and financial markets that the Federal Reserve should and likely will cut interest rates at its next meeting later this month. Financial markets are now pricing a near-certainty (97–100%
Markets are showing a positive tone heading into today, largely fuelled by expectations that upcoming jobs data may finally justify interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as soon as mid-September. The US nonfarm payrolls is expected at 1.30pm, a weak report would increase the odds of a rate cut in September. The consensus among
Outlook for today: US jobs report Read More »
FTSE 100, S&P 500Futures show indecisiveness, hovering around the flatline as investors await key labour market data, which could solidify expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its September meeting. Alphabet soared 9.1% on favourable antitrust developments, and Apple jumped 3.8% providing upward momentum to the Nasdaq and broader indices. But bond yields remain elevated and could
Goldman Sachs warning Read More »
Bonds, InflationBond yields across developed economies are rising mainly due to a combination of higher government deficits, increased debt issuance, quantitative tightening by central banks, and a reduced appetite among traditional buyers for long-dated bonds. Main Drivers of Rising Yields: Fiscal Deficits and Debt Issuance: Many governments are running large fiscal deficits and are borrowing heavily,
Why yields are rising Read More »
Bonds, InflationWe can see two clear Elliott wave cycles on US CPI since the 1930s. Now we are probably in the third cycle. Elliott wave analysis suggests higher inflation ahead. US CPI data chart going back to the 1930s shows several Elliott wave cycles. The first one occurred in the 1930s and 1940s, during that period
Why Inflation May Remain High Read More »
InflationThe FTSE 100, a key indicator of the UK’s largest companies, has been a point of concern for investors lately. The primary culprit? Its lack of exposure to the booming tech sector. Across the pond, the S&P 500 in the US has been on a tear, fueled by the strong performance of tech giants. These
Potential For a New High in the FTSE 100 Read More »
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